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<Research>G Sachs Estimates BABA-W 4Q25 EBITA to Hike 12% YoY; Rating Buy
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Goldman Sachs’ research report mentioned that BABA-W (09988.HK)(BABA.US) released its latest Qwen3 series of AI models under Tongyi Qianwen. Besides, Alibaba Cloud had announced earlier this month that AI model API calls on its platform spiked nearly 100 times in January 2025 compared to December 2024, while the number of enterprises integrated into its AI platform PAI shot up 100 times YoY to over 10,000.

Anticipating a surge in training and inference demand since January, Goldman Sachs projected this to accelerate Alibaba Cloud’s revenue growth. The broker forecast Alibaba’s revenue for 4Q25 (ending March 31, 2025) to grow 18% YoY, faster than the 13% growth in the prior quarter.

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Following the Qwen3 model release, Goldman Sachs envisioned investor focus may shift to the upcoming DeepSeek R2 model. The broker predicted Alibaba’s 4Q25 GMV to climb 4% YoY, CMR to lift 9% YoY, group EBITA to hike 12% YoY, and Taobao & Tmall EBITA to add 1% YoY, compared to consensus of 6%, 8%, 39%, and 2%, respectively. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating on BABA-W with a target price of HKD154.
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