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《大行》大摩:市場近期對香港金融板塊擔憂明顯過度
摩根士丹利的研究報告指出,新出台的國務院境外投資規定以及中國證監會(CSRC)對跨境股票交易的整治,本質上是為了建立法治化的制度框架來保護中國實體經濟的對外直接投資(ODI),並將資金引導至合規的官方渠道(如港股通、QDII及跨境理財通等),而非針對居民個人的正常境外金融與資產配置需求。在目前的監管標準下,內地居民在親身前往香港的情況下仍可正常開立及操作投資...
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《大行》大摩:市場近期對香港金融板塊擔憂明顯過度
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摩根士丹利的研究報告指出,新出台的國務院境外投資規定以及中國證監會(CSRC)對跨境股票交易的整治,本質上是為了建立法治化的制度框架來保護中國實體經濟的對外直接投資(ODI),並將資金引導至合規的官方渠道(如港股通、QDII及跨境理財通等),而非針對居民個人的正常境外金融與資產配置需求。在目前的監管標準下,內地居民在親身前往香港的情況下仍可正常開立及操作投資帳戶或購買保險,僅無法在內地境內直接操作核心的線上境外投資與交易功能,此標準與多年前已實行合規化管理的保險業務基本一致。

基於此,大摩認為市場近期對香港金融板塊的擔憂明顯過度,並對四大指標金融機構的影響做出以下評估:友邦保險(01299.HK)  +3.450 (+4.911%)    Short selling $408.69M; Ratio 15.438%   :近期股價因市場過度擔憂內地訪客(MCV)跨境保險業務受阻而出現約13%的超跌。然而,兩地保險監管機構(如香港保監局)近期再度強調,只要整個銷售與合約簽署流程是由客戶親身在香港境內完成,其跨境保險業務即屬合規並照常運作。大摩估算即使在極端且預期不會發生的「2026年下半年起完全無新內地訪客業務」假設下,對其內含價值(EV)或營運利潤的影響也僅在2%至6%的輕微可控範圍,其目前估值非常具吸引力,維持「增持」評級。

滙豐控股(00005.HK)  +3.000 (+2.217%)    Short selling $323.76M; Ratio 33.826%   )與渣打集團(02888.HK)  +4.100 (+2.166%)    Short selling $4.94M; Ratio 3.659%   :兩家銀行的業務與財富管理業務均在高度合規的法規指引下運作,受此次打擊證券「灰色渠道」或非法跨境證券開戶活動的直接影響微乎其微。同時,內地居民一般境外存款與儲蓄帳戶的開立並非監管整頓的目標,且大摩此前對兩家銀行的財富管理與資金流入預測本就偏向保守,目前的估值並未充分反映其穩健的回報潛力,股價同樣屬於超跌,因而對兩者皆維持「增持」評級。

就香港交易所(00388.HK)  -8.400 (-2.193%)    Short selling $430.13M; Ratio 21.107%   而言,監管層的政策核心在於杜絕無牌照的灰色境外券商,同時積極將內地資金導流至官方合法管道。隨著正式的跨境資本互聯互通渠道(如港股通等)持續擴容,香港作為吸引中國相關財富創造與合法資本帳戶流動的核心樞紐地位保持不變,因此港交所將成為官方渠道擴張下的長期主要受益者。(ad/u)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-06-11 12:25.)

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