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《大行》中金:市場料伊朗局勢朝不再升級演變 對特朗普「TACO」邏輯仍抱較大期待
中金今日(13日)發表港股策略報告表示,過去一週,伊朗局勢迅速朝著不再升級的方向演變,這也是大部分資產的底層的默認預期,不然這幾週市場早就開始加劇動盪了。這一判斷也不難做出,畢竟特朗普還有年底的中期選舉要顧及,不可能一直承受高油價、高通脹和金融市場動盪,只不過難點在於對節奏的把握,即便到現在,和談局勢依然撲朔迷離,脆弱的平衡是否會被再度打破。這和該行此前的基...
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《大行》中金:市場料伊朗局勢朝不再升級演變 對特朗普「TACO」邏輯仍抱較大期待
Recommend
15
Positive
26
Negative
13
 
 

中金今日(13日)發表港股策略報告表示,過去一週,伊朗局勢迅速朝著不再升級的方向演變,這也是大部分資產的底層的默認預期,不然這幾週市場早就開始加劇動盪了。這一判斷也不難做出,畢竟特朗普還有年底的中期選舉要顧及,不可能一直承受高油價、高通脹和金融市場動盪,只不過難點在於對節奏的把握,即便到現在,和談局勢依然撲朔迷離,脆弱的平衡是否會被再度打破。這和該行此前的基準假設也大體一致,即短期會有波動反覆,4月是關鍵,但中期往徹底失控的方向演變不是基準情形。

在這種情況下,相比單純憑運氣去「賭方向」,中金認為更可以把握的「確定性」是資產計入預期的充分程度,以此來幫助其決定配置思路,並給出三個層次的配置建議:(1)倉位輕,可左側加倉預期計入悲觀的資產,如黃金、美債、恒科、創新藥等;(2)倉位重,可以部分調倉至低波紅利或降低倉位以待時機;(3)持有受益資產儲能綠電煤炭,但因為已是高度共識,也不宜過度追高。過去一段時間市場的表現也大抵如此。

同樣面對伊朗局勢和高油價,三地盈利走向分化:美股上修,A股持平,港股下修。港股承壓:恒指、MSCI中國除A股和MSCI中國指數未來12個月盈利預測分別下調1.3%、1.9%和3%,在三地市場裡最弱。綜合來看,美股能源板塊更大幅度的上調和中下游板塊更小幅度的下修是其整體盈利反而走高的關鍵。對比之下,港股科技與其他下游板塊普遍且大幅的下修則拖累了整體盈利的下行。

中金指基準情形下,如果伊朗局勢逐漸平息,結合中美信用週期走向及市場一致預期,美股的盈利增速高於A股港股。基準情形下,當前市場一致預期預計美股盈利2026年增速18.2%,A股1.2%,港股5.5%。局勢不再升級是關鍵前提,此時盈利的決定因素將回歸中美各自信用週期和產業趨勢。

對中國而言,伊朗局勢並未改變信用週期震盪格局,除非外需明顯承壓推動政策加碼對沖。財政總量基本持平、高基數下私人社融脈衝偏弱,中國信用週期或震盪轉平,盈利大幅改善也難以期待,更多是結構性亮點,該行測算2026年A股盈利增速介乎4%至5%(非金融增8%,金融增1.6%,市場一致預期增11.2%),港股盈利增速略低於A股,為3%至4%(非金融增6%至7%,金融預計零增長,市場一致預期增5.5%)。指數點位上,維持基準情形下恒指28,000至29,000點的判斷,2026年中國信用週期震盪持平會約束指數整體空間,此外,二季度信用週期的弱季節性也可能會帶來階段性壓力。

但悲觀情形下,三地市場盈利對局勢升級的定價都不充分。如果油價中樞維持在100美元高位至三、四季度,2026年油價中樞將上漲50%,該行測算美國企業利潤或下滑約9%,至介乎3%至%4%,中國企業利潤或下滑12%為負增長。高油價和地緣衝擊對盈利的影響需要時間體現,同時市場一直對「TACO」邏輯仍抱有較大期待,認為特朗普在下半年中期選舉壓力下仍有妥協可能。

若局勢持續升級,結合當前估值中仍包含部分降息預期,美股或將面臨10%至15%的回調壓力;對於中國市場,假設美聯儲年內不降息、年底美債利率到4.2%,並參照俄烏衝突到衝突常態化後的風險溢價抬升幅度,恒生科指也或面臨約6%降幅至介乎4,500至4,600點、恒指或跌約10%至23,000點左右。(wl/da)

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